CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — Could Corpus Christi run out of water?
It's a question 3NEWS took to city leaders as the levels at our two main water sources continue to drop, even though rainfall has only been slightly below normal.
Currently, we are under Stage 2 water restrictions, and city officials said in the next couple of months, our lake levels could fall low enough that it could send us into Stage 3.
3NEWS spent a week speaking with community officials and water experts, who told us there is a real risk of Corpus Christi Water's supply running dry.
It's an complex issue city leaders are not taking lightly.
Water woes
At Lake Corpus Christi, a dad shoots video of his little girl as she works up the courage to make a big splash, jumping into a bustling Lake Corpus Christi.
The splash, a boat motor in the background, the laughter -- it's part of those typical sounds you expect to hear out on the water.
That video was taken almost two years ago.
3NEWS revisited the same area on the lake, but, this time, there was no water under the pier.
"Over there we have a floating pier, there is not a single drop of water and it's real big," said Mustang Hollow Camp Grounds owner Robin Sargent.
For half his life he's seen the Mathis lake's ups and downs.
"There's been about five or six times over those 40 years it got this low," he said.
Not far from where tree branches reach out from their shallow, watery graves, Sargent walked us over to his boat ramp which is now off limits to guests.
"We have two boat ramps one here, one over there that is completely dry," he said.
The lower water level is taking its toll.
"We've lost some of the business where people bring bigger boats," he said.
Severe shortages
Lake Corpus Christi and Choke Canyon Reservoir are two of Corpus Christi's three main water sources.
3NEWS sat down with Corpus Christi City Manager Peter Zanoni for a lengthy conversation about our water supply.
In terms of his biggest worries as a city manager, Zanoni says water is at the top.
"I think giving where we're at today with our water levels, and that summer is fast approaching, is one of our biggest concerns," he said.
The city's watershed is at a combined level of around 27 percent as of May 20. The drop below 30 percent is what prompted the city to enact Stage 2 water restrictions. But it may not end there.
Zanoni said we could hit Stage 3 by the end of summer, seeing as how it would take a major rain event such as hurricane, to get us back up to comfortable levels.
"I think there's a real risk that we could be in trouble, given where we are today," Zanoni said. "This is historic lows and our western reservoirs. We know our eastern reservoirs, while wealth plentiful -- the delivery system, the Mary Rhodes pipeline -- has challenges because of its age at its original construction."
He's talking about our third source, piped in from Lake Texana, which is right around 94 percent as of May 20.
Corpus Christi Water serves nearly half a million citizens across seven counties. 3NEWS asked chief operating officer Drew Molly: "Point blank, are we running out of water?"
"I would tell you, the way we look at it is we're definitely going down a direction that is something that has many of us concerned about," he said. "And we've been watching this for a while."
Molly said he's kept updated on forecast models as we approach summer.
"Over the historical time of how our watershed behaves, it takes 9-,10-, 12- inch rain events to really make a meaningful impact on those reservoirs," he said. "And frankly, we're just not seeing it."
"When it does rain, the rainwater tends to seep into the ground rather than collecting in the lakes and the reservoirs," Zanoni added.
Drought is doubtful
However rain levels are not historically below average.
The latest drought monitor shows Corpus Christi and most of Nueces County is considered abnormally dry, but we are not in what is considered a significant drought.
Think about it this way: If you go outside and look at your grass, it's most likely green, but the rain keeping the grass healthy isn't making it into our watershed.
To understand the issue better, 3NEWS spoke with hydrologist Dorina Murgulet at the Natural Resources Center at Texas A&M University- Corpus Christi .
"We went through pretty extreme droughts in the past, but it looks like we are not recovering from it," she said.
She's referring to a significant drought the area experienced all the way back in 2011.
Meantime, city officials confirm we are seeing more demand on our water system.
"Some of our customers that we have now we didn't have five, six years ago," Zanoni said.
Murgulet pointed to a chart that shows a continuing downward trend for the Nueces River Basin Reservoirs.
"Even if we're not seeing that we get rain, and should be recovering, and replenishing," she said. "If demand is greater than what we have to begin with, then we are going to experience that drought."