CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — UPDATE: 7:30 p.m.
The National Hurricane Center now has a high probability that Invest 91L becomes organized prior to moving into Texas this weekend. Whether this is a tropical depression or tropical storm is to be determined.
Whether it is a tropical depression or storm, the primary threat will be heavy tropical downpours, leading to localized flooding. If it gets a name, it will be Hanna.
Forecast track will be critical to where the heaviest rain moves in and that is also still in question. In my opinion (Alan), it will move in between Corpus Christi and Houston sometime Saturday. Once a defined center is located, forecast models will have a better grasp on the future of this system.
This is expressly model data from the European Model and not a forecast, but it illustrates a point. If this model verifies, a tropical depression would move into a slot of land very near Corpus Christi on Saturday late afternoon/evening. Winds would be just below tropical storm strength at 39 mph.
The bigger issue would be the heavy rain and flooding problems. This solution would bring that swath of purple/white right through the heart of the Coastal Bend represents a half a foot to a foot and a half (6-18") of rain between Friday and Monday morning.
Flooding is going to be the main threat from Invest 91L, regardless of whether it is a tropical wave, depression, or weak tropical storm.
There are other models that bring this system in both north and south of the area, completely missing the Coastal Bend, aside from a few showers. A few models do bring this to tropical storm strength.
Hurricane Recon aircraft is flying through the storm right now, looking for evidence of a closed low. If it can find one, a tropical depression, or storm (winds pending) could be named as early as this evening.
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