CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — Similar to forecasting tropical systems, the Thanksgiving day outlook is still a week a way, so details are going to be murky and specifics are certainly not set in stone at 7 days out. We are, however, able to recognize larger scale patterns and the forecast for Turkey Day in the Coastal Bend is looking like it will be an interesting one with a cold front on the menu. The big questions are going to be: when does it reach the Coastal Bend and how cold.
On average, a Thanksgiving Day in Corpus Christi experiences a high temperatures in the lower 70s and a low temperature in the lower 50s. However, average during Fall in South Texas can be a little deceptive because the weather can be highly variable this time of year. For example, Last year the high temperature in Corpus Christi was 61°, but in 2020 it was 87°. Lots of variability.
This time around, it does look like we will catch a cold front on Thanksgiving Day, but that does not necessarily mean the outlook will be chilly on Thursday. A week out, the timing for this cold front is trending toward an afternoon or evening arrival for the Coastal Bend. That would mean a continuation of highs in the middle 80s next week into Thanksgiving Day (7 Day forecast at bottom of article).
The mechanism sending the cold front south is wrapped up in a large upper atmosphere low pressure system off of the Pacific Northwest Coast. This is the system that's being called a 'bomb cyclone'. A piece of energy will be locked in to a large area of low pressure through the weekend. Eventually, that ejects into the Continental US and will be working across the Plains by Thanksgiving Day. The timing of our cold front will hinge on how fast or slow that energy moves across the US next week.
So, as of a week before Thanksgiving Day, I have high temperatures in the middle 80s on Thanksgiving Day in the Coastal Bend. That could change of the cold front trends quicker. The earlier the front arrives, the cooler Thanksgiving Day will be in the Coastal Bend. The front will likely will not come with rain as it passes.
Behind the front, into Black Friday, 40s and 50s Friday morning behind the cold front with highs in the 70s.
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