CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season came to an end on November 30th.
Leading up to the season, pre-season forecasts were looking at two main factors for the expected amount of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin:
1) A transition from El Niño towards La Niña, which tends to decrease wind shear and increase the amount of tropical activity in the Atlantic, and
2) Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin, which are better for tropical development.
The KIII pre-season forecast considered both of these factors and the fact that they would work together to increase tropical activity, but how far we'd get into a La Niña was unclear. Our outlook was for 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes.
NOAA's pre-season forecast was for 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes. This was the highest pre-season outlook they have ever issued.
NOAA's outlook verified, but our outlook overestimated the number of named storms. Our hurricane and major hurricane forecast were only each one above what we actually observed.
As of November 30, a La Niña has yet to be declared by NOAA.
On average, there are 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (Category 3+) during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 - November 30. "Average" is based on 1991-2020 climatology.
This year there were 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. That ties with a few other years for the fifth-most named storms, fourth-most hurricanes and third-most major hurricanes in a year on record.
Most Named Storms on Record
1. 30 storms - 2020
2. 28 storms - 2005
3. 21 storms - 2021
3. 20 storms - 2023, 1933
4. 19 storms - 2012, 2011, 2010, 1995, 1887
5. 18 storms - 2024, 2019, 1969
Most Hurricanes on Record
1. 15 hurricanes - 2005
2. 13 hurricanes - 2020
3. 12 hurricanes - 2010, 1969
4. 11 hurricanes - 2024, 1995, 1950, 1933, 1887
5. 10 hurricanes - 2017, 2012, 1998, 1916, 1893, 1886, 1878, 1870
Most Major Hurricanes on Record
1. 7 major hurricanes - 2005
2. 6 major hurricanes - 2020, 2017, 2004, 1996, 1950, 1933, 1926
3. 5 major hurricanes - 2024, 2010, 2008, 1999, 1995, 1969, 1964, 1961, 1916, 1893
Of the storms we saw this season, only the first five occurred during the first half of the season (June-August), and only one additional storm occurred before the peak of the season (September 10).
The first few weeks of the season were unusually quiet. This was the latest start to hurricane season since 2014, when the first storm was named on July 1. But once it started, this season kicked off with a flurry of activity. Within two and a half weeks, we'd had Alberto, Beryl, and Chris in the Gulf of Mexico.
The Gulf and Caribbean were a collective hotbed of tropical activity this year. Of the 18 named storms, 12 of them passed through one or both of these areas.
Another two-week lull of no activity in late July was finally interrupted by what became Hurricane Debby; Hurricane Ernesto quickly followed. Both of these storms matured from disturbances in the Central Atlantic.
We finally started seeing more activity coming from the Eastern Atlantic by late August. Interestingly, we didn't see as much viable activity later in the season parading off the western coast of Africa like we typically do.
Meteorologists at Colorado State University (CSU) discussed a few potential reasons as to why we didn't see as many areas of interest being monitored directly off the African coast. They said that the northward shift of the monsoon trough caused tropical waves to emerge off Africa too far north to encounter favorable development conditions - namely, sea surface temperatures that were too cool.
CSU also contemplates that a combination of warmer upper-air temperatures, increased wind shear in the Eastern Atlantic, and an unfavorable Madden-Julian Oscillation contributed to the unusual season.
Another way this season's activity was strange was its timing. Twice this season, we went around a month without a named storm: 34 days elapsed between Chris and Debby forming, and 28 days elapsed between Ernesto and Francine forming.
In addition to the slow start and multiple lulls, the second half of the season was hyperactive with record-breaking activity. Twelve named storms formed after the peak of the season. Since September 25, a record-setting seven hurricanes formed in the Atlantic.
While we did see most of our storms form in September this year, most of our hurricanes formed in October.
Additionally, all eleven hurricanes this season formed before the average date for each respective storm number.
The first named storm of the year was Tropical Storm Alberto. Alberto was rather timely, forming one day before the first average named storm on June 19. Alberto was a very broad, unorganized system in the western Gulf of Mexico.
It made landfall as a 50 mph tropical storm near Tampico, Mexico on June 20. While Alberto made landfall nearly 400 miles south of Corpus Christi, we still felt its effects locally.
The day before landfall, the Coastal Bend saw numerous flash flood and tornado warnings. Isolated pockets of 10" of rain fell from tropical downpours in Alberto's outer rain bands. This rainfall briefly improved our drought conditions.
Additionally, 3-4' of storm surge pushed into coastal areas. Inundation of 3.8' in Nueces Bay led to roads being washed out and piers being destroyed. North Beach also flooded (image below), with first responders executing multiple high water rescues.
Two tornadoes were confirmed in the Rockport-Fulton area. Both were rated EF-0. They each only lasted a minute or two and only tracked about a quarter of a mile.
The first tornado occurred 1 mile northeast of Rockport. This tornado was estimated to have winds of 70 mph, breaking tree branches.
The second tornado occurred 2 miles west of Rockport. This tornado was estimated to have winds of 85 mph. This twister did a bit more damage, including damage to some structures and fencing.
Other locations around the Coastal Bend experienced wind gusts up to 50 mph. Alberto was a prime example of tropical impacts extending beyond the forecast cone.
While Alberto didn't make landfall in the United States, the next storm did - and it got uncomfortably close.
Last year, two tropical storms and one hurricane made landfall in the United States.
This year, five hurricanes made landfall in the United States: Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene, and Milton. Two of these made landfall as major hurricanes.
Beryl was the first hurricane - and first major hurricane - of the season. While it didn't make landfall in the United States as a major hurricane, it wasted no time setting records.
After being the farthest east a hurricane has formed in the tropical Atlantic (49.3°W), Beryl rapidly intensified into the strongest July Atlantic hurricane on record. It became the third-earliest major hurricane on record, trailing Alma (June 8, 1996) and Audrey (June 27, 1957).
Beryl intensified into a Category 4 hurricane on June 30 and into a Category 5 hurricane on July 1, becoming the earliest Category 4 and 5 on record in the process. The previous earliest Category 4 and 5 hurricanes were Dennis (July 8, 2005) and Emily (July 17, 2007), respectively.
Beryl's strength peaked at sustained winds of 165 mph - a devastating Category 5.
Hurricane Beryl created one of the most prolific and significant tropical cyclone-induced tornado outbreaks on record.
By the time Beryl completely dissipated, 68 tornadoes were confirmed across multiple states. This is the fifth-most hurricane-spawned tornadoes by a single storm and the most tropical tornadoes we've seen since Hurricane Rita (2005).
Most tornadoes hit Texas and Louisiana, but more were spawned along Beryl's path over the Midwest and into upstate New York. The strongest tornado was an EF-3 in the extreme southwest corner of Indiana.
An EF-2 tornado in northwestern Louisiana was surveyed by the Shreveport NWS and determined to have a path length of around 53 miles, making it the longest-tracked tornado spawned by a tropical cyclone.
Hurricane Milton didn't quite crack the top 10 for most tropical tornadoes. However, an EF-1 in Florida during Hurricane Milton was preliminarily determined to have a path length of 70.8 miles, which would have re-set the longest track record, but it was determined that the damage was due to multiple tornadoes.
In total, 113 tornado warnings were issued during Hurricane Beryl - the second most tornado warnings for a tropical cyclone behind Hurricane Ivan (2004). Ivan prompted 213 tornado warnings. This also surpassed the previous record for most tornado warnings in the United States in a single July day; the previous record was 67.
The Shreveport NWS office alone issued 67 tornado warnings - the most they've ever issued in a single day or month.
June storms are typically sloppy systems that spin up in the Gulf of Mexico, but Beryl's strength and path was more reminiscent of an August storm. An easterly wave left the western African coast June 25; it became the second named storm June 29 and then the first hurricane and first major hurricane on June 30.
Thirteen days elapsed from the time the easterly wave moved into the Atlantic to Beryl's final landfall; Beryl made a handful of landfalls at varying intensities.
The first landfall was July 1 on Carriacou Island in Grenada. Beryl made landfall as a 150 mph Category 4 hurricane - the strongest hurricane to make landfall in Grenada.
The second landfall was a few days later on July 5, northeast of Tulum, Mexico. Beryl made landfall here as a 110 mph Category 2 hurricane.
Beryl's third and final landfall was in the early morning hours of July 8 near Matagorda, Texas as an 80 mph Category 1 hurricane.
Conditions were favorable for rapid re-intensification leading up to its final landfall. Thankfully, Beryl only regained Category 1 strength just before making landfall as it battled dry air. Beryl still wreaked havoc on the Houston Metro - particularly in the form of widespread power outages.
Initial forecasts for Beryl's final landfall were aimed at northern Mexico. Three days later, the Coastal Bend lay squarely in its path. Forecast models latched on to a trough swinging across the Central Plains and high pressure parked over Florida. We closely monitored the eastward progression of the forecast cone and were thankfully spared from Beryl.
The day Beryl made landfall, we were hot and dry in Corpus Christi- hitting 100°F and setting a record high temperature. This is because we were on the western side of the storm, where sinking air - called subsidence - dries and warms as it descends to the surface.
Prior to Beryl, the last hurricane landfall in Texas was Hurricane Nicholas in September 2021. The most recent July hurricane landfall in Texas was Hurricane Hanna in 2020, which destroyed Bob Hall Pier.
Tropical Storm Chris was a weak, short-lived tropical storm in the southwestern Gulf. It was named the same day Beryl initially reached Category 3 status and lasted all of 9 hours. Once Chris dissipated and Beryl made landfall, we waited for over a month for the next storm to form - Debby.
Debby began as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four on August 2 and was given a name August 3. A day later, Debby intensified into a Category 1 hurricane. It made landfall the morning of August 5 near Steinhatchee, Florida.
The most noteworthy thing about Debby was how slowly it moved - practically crawled - across the Southeast. An upper-level high over the western and central United States contradicted the flow of the Bermuda high off the East Coast. These opposing flows cancelled each other out, allowing Debby to stall and linger over Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.
This slow movement set up a heavy rain and widespread flooding event, which later ended up being overshadowed by Hurricane Helene in September.
Debby briefly moved back into the Atlantic before making a second landfall in South Carolina three days later as a tropical storm.
Within a week of Debby made landfall, Hurricane Ernesto popped up in the Atlantic. At its strongest, Ernesto was a 100 mph Category 2 hurricane. It made landfall in Bermuda on August 17 as an 85 mph Category 1.
Nearly another month went by before we saw Francine develop. Up until this point, all the named storms this season had formed before normal - Francine formed 11 days after the sixth average named storm. This later-than-average trend continued through the tenth named storm, Joyce.
While the synoptic weather pattern for Francine was similar to Beryl, higher certainty in the forecast allowed us to not worry over this storm locally. The left edge of the first two forecast cones just barely scraped the Texas coastline.
Francine made landfall at its max strength - a 100 mph Category 2 hurricane.
Francine marked the eighth Category 2+ hurricane to make landfall in Louisiana since the turn of the century. Of those, two made landfall in 2005 (Katrina and Rita) and three made landfall in 2020 (Laura, Delta, and Zeta) - the only two years in which we saw so many named storms that we went to the alternate list of Greek alphabet names.
After the 2020 hurricane season, the Greek alphabet list was retired.
After Francine, we quickly saw Tropical Storm Gordon, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, and Hurricane Helene.
Helene was one of the biggest storms this year - both physically and in terms of its impacts. The size of Helene's wind field rivalled that of Hurricane Ike (2008). Had Helene gone over Texas, its tropical storm-force winds would have stretched from Corpus Christi to the Red River.
On September 23, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine formed. Three days later, it was a major hurricane taking aim at Florida's Big Bend. According to NOAA, Hurricane Helene marked the first time ever that the NHC has forecast a system to become a major hurricane before it became a tropical depression or storm.
Ahead of Helene's landfall, the Taylor County Sherriff's Office (where Perry, Florida is) requested residents who ignored evacuation orders to write their personal information on their arm or leg so their bodies could be identified after the storm.
As with Francine, Helene made landfall at its peak intensity - a 140 mph Category 4 hurricane. Helene slammed into the Florida coast, pounding the Sunshine State with rain, wind, and storm surge.
No storm in modern history would compare - this was the first storm of this strength to strike the Big Bend of Florida. The strongest storm to previously hit this area was the Cedar Key hurricane of 1896, a 125 mph Category 3 hurricane.
Helene made landfall 10 miles WSW of Perry, Florida - about 40 miles northwest of where Hurricane Debby made landfall in early August. This was not the final hurricane for Florida this year.
Before it devastated the Carolinas, Hurricane Helene brought a storm surge of at least 15 ft to areas near Keaton Beach, Horseshoe Bay, and Steinhatchee (where Debby made landfall) - the NHC calling it "catastrophic" and "deadly."
Tampa saw record surge levels - higher than the records set just last year by Hurricane Idalia.
Generally speaking, stronger storms have higher storm surges, as faster winds are able to push more water, creating higher surges.
The Tallahassee NWS issued an Extreme Wind Warning for winds of 115+ mph in Helene's eyewall. They said to "treat it like a tornado warning" by sheltering in place. There were plenty of tornado warnings, too.
Much of the Southeast was under an Enhanced Risk (3 out of 5) for severe storms - namely, the tornado risk. Over the course of Helene's northward trek, 219 tornado warnings were issued across 16 NWS offices.
Helene barreled northward at 30 mph - quite fast for a tropical cyclone. Helene's quick forward movement allowed its strength to be felt farther inland. Hurricane Warnings stretched inland as far north as Atlanta, and Tropical Storm Warnings stretched all the way into western North Carolina.
Along the way, the hurricane knocked out power for over 4.3 million people across more than a half dozen states, mostly in South Carolina, Florida, and Georgia. The aftermath was evident on nighttime satellite imagery.
As Helene continued north, multiple feet of rain fell. Some locations in North Carolina reported 25-30" of rain over the course of three days.
Days in advance, the NWS was forecasting extreme rainfall totals over western North Carolina. The Greensville-Spartanburg's public messaging evolution looked like this:
• Sep. 23 - 8 hr after PTC Nine designation: "several inches of rain not out of the question"
• Sep. 24 - 59 hr before landfall, Tropical Storm Helene forms: "expect VERY heavy rainfall"
• Sep. 24 - 53 hr before landfall, Helene's center consolidating: "This has the potential to be an extremely rare event."
• Sep. 25 - 40 hr before landfall, Hurricane Helene forms: "widespread heavy rain, severe flash flooding, significant impacts"
• Sep. 25 - 29 hr before landfall, entering Gulf: "This has the potential to be an extremely rare event with catastrophic flash-flooding that hasn't been seen in the modern era." "numerous landslides expected"
• Sep. 26 - 10 hr before landfall, flooding in progress: "This will be one of the most significant weather events to happen in the western portions of the area in the modern era."
• Sep. 27 - 10 hr after landfall, center of Helene passes over, Flash Flood Emergencies ongoing: "Life-threatening flash flooding, widespread road closures, widespread life-threatening landslide activity"
• Sep. 27 - 12 hr after landfall, Flash Flood Emergency for threat of Lake Lure Dam failure:
• Sep. 28 - 44 hr after landfall: The worst-case scenario comes to realization.
Entire communities were swept off the map by flooding. Mudslides and roads collapsing led to entire towns being cut off from the rest of the state. This all happened nearly 300 miles inland - a sobering reminder that tropical impacts are not confined to coastal locations.
The majority of fatalities from Helene occurred in the Carolinas. Preliminary data indicates that Helene was the deadliest United States hurricane since Katrina (2005), with over 150 direct deaths reported.
After Helene, we saw four storms form over the course of a week: Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, and Leslie. These all thankfully stayed away from land in the open Atlantic. Isaac, Kirk, and Leslie were hurricanes.
Kirk set a handful of records based on how far east it was in the Atlantic for such a strong storm later in the season. Leslie then proceeded to break one of those records three days later.
Kirk became the third major hurricane of the season. The next one was Milton.
Milton marked the fifth landfalling hurricane on the Gulf Coast this year - and the third for Florida. The most hurricanes to make landfall in one season on the Gulf Coast is six (1886).
Milton made landfall as a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane.
The hurricane made landfall south of Tampa Bay, meaning winds over the bay were from the northeast. These winds were so strong that they pushed the water out of Tampa Bay:
Helene and Milton marked the ninth and tenth major hurricanes to strike Florida since 2000, respectively. Two major hurricanes have hit Florida in 1950, 2004, 2005, 2024. No years on record have had three major hurricane Florida landfalls.
This year also marks the fifth consecutive year that at least one major hurricane has made landfall in the contiguous United States.
Hurricane Beryl firmly held the title of the strongest storm of the year for nearly the entire season, with a maximum sustained wind speed of 165 mph. Then came Milton.
Milton was an unprecedented storm in more ways than one: its intensification, its strength, and its motion.
Milton rapidly intensified into a hurricane from a tropical depression in just under 24 hours. Rapid intensification is defined as an increase in sustained wind speed of at least 30 knots (~35 mph) in 24 hours.
To go from tropical depression-strength to a Category 2 hurricane took Milton 42 hours - just under two days. Beginning October 7 at 4am, Milton gained a category in strength with every 3-hour update. By 1pm, it was a 175 mph Category 5. Another three hours, and it topped out at an astonishing 180 mph.
Milton's 95 mph intensification in 24 hours (4pm Oct. 6 - 4pm Oct. 7) puts it in the top 3 quickest Atlantic rapid intensifications.
Milton wasn't just the strongest hurricane of this year - it was one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes ever.
Milton's maximum sustained winds of 180 mph ties it with Hurricane Rita (2005) for the third-strongest Gulf of Mexico hurricane on record. The only two Gulf hurricanes that have been stronger than Milton were the "Labor Day" hurricane of 1935 and Hurricane Allen (1980), which made landfall around 115 miles south of Corpus Christi as a Category 3 hurricane. Allen is the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic (by wind speed).
In the Atlantic, Hurricanes Dorian (2019), Wilma (2005), and Gilbert (1988) also reached winds of 185 mph. Hurricanes Irma (2017) and Mitch (1998) reached 180 mph, meaning Milton is tied with them and Rita for the sixth-strongest Atlantic hurricane on record.
Milton's central pressure dropped to 897 mb. This makes Milton the third-most intense Gulf hurricane based on pressure, with only the "Labor Day" hurricane of 1935 (892 mb) and Rita (895 mb) being stronger.
In terms of the Atlantic, Milton would rank as the fifth-most intense hurricane based on pressure. In addition to the Labor Day hurricane and Rita, Wilma (882 mb) and Gilbert (888 mb) were also stronger. Pressure records have been kept since 1979.
Milton very quickly became the strongest October hurricane on record. It was the strongest October Gulf hurricane since Michael (2018) and the strongest Gulf hurricane that late in the year since Rita (Sep. 22). Hurricane Michael is the only other October Gulf Category 5.
Beryl was the first Category 5 this year; Milton was the second. Since 1950, only five other Atlantic hurricane seasons have had two or more Category 5 hurricanes: 1961, 2005, 2007, 2017, and 2019.
Only 3% of named storms and 6% of hurricanes ever reach Category 5-strength. Officially, there have been 42 Category 5 hurricanes through 2024. (Other Category 5 storms likely existed, with researchers and scientists finding evidence of other occurrences prior to modern-day record keeping.)
The one thing Milton did not share with a single one of those 42 hurricanes? Its forward motion.
Milton is the only Category 5 hurricane on record to move in a southeasterly direction.
As it approached Florida, Milton spawned a large tornado outbreak across the southern half of the state. A record-breaking 46 tornadoes were confirmed by NWS Florida offices - the eleventh-most hurricane-spawned tornadoes on record. Three tornadoes were rated EF-3.
The previous Florida record for most tornadoes in a single day was 22, which was set twice (Jun. 24, 2012 and Apr. 23, 1997).
Instead of being rain-wrapped, many of these tornadoes were clearly visible:
A second tornado-related record was set: 126 tornado warnings were issued in Florida in a single day.
Not only was it a record amount of warnings for the state of Florida, it also ranks as the second-most number of tornado warnings issued by any state in a single day.
For context: the first and third place numbers are from April 27, 2011 during the 2011 Super Outbreak across Dixie Alley. Alabama issued 134 tornado warnings and Tennessee issued 124 tornado warnings that day.
A little over a week after Milton dissipated, Tropical Storm Nadine formed. Nadine itself wasn't anything noteworthy - just a 60 mph tropical storm. It became noteworthy once its remnants crossed Central America into the Pacific.
Because Nadine had completely dissipated, the storm that formed in the Pacific from those remnants was given a new name off the Eastern Pacific name list, Kristy. Kristy absolutely exploded, becoming the strongest storm in the Eastern Pacific this year with winds of 160 mph.
After Nadine came Oscar.
Oscar was the "little hurricane who could." It became a named storm on October 19, and within three hours, it doubled its wind speed from 40 mph to 80 mph.
Hurricane Oscar is possibly the smallest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded. Hurricane-force winds extended a mere 5-6 miles from the center of the storm.
It's theorized that Oscar's tiny size helped it evade forecast models - it snuck up and rapidly intensified against all forecast model expectations. As a general rule of thumb, hurricanes with smaller cores can fluctuate in intensity much more quickly than a larger hurricane.
Another storm, another week-plus lull: Patty formed as a subtropical storm near the Iberian Peninsula in early November, then acquired tropical characteristics a few days later.
Rafael formed the same day Patty became tropical. Rafael was interesting.
It started as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen in the central Caribbean, and was named Hurricane Rafael a couple days later. Within 15 hours of becoming a hurricane, Rafael had rapidly intensified into a 115 mph Category 3. It made landfall in Cuba - the first November major hurricane to do so since 2001.
Rafael is one of only eight hurricanes to pass through the Gulf of Mexico in November. It's one of two major hurricanes to pass through the Gulf in November - the other being Kate (1985).
Forecast models did not handle Rafael's path past Cuba very well. Initially, the forecast cone brought Rafael into the central Gulf Coast. Over the course of a few days, it became clear that Rafael would turn more westerly and then meander in the central Gulf before dissipating.
We rounded out the season with Tropical Storm Sara in mid-November, which hung around Central America for a few days before dissipating over the Yucatan Peninsula.
If it wasn't apparent enough from the above-average number of storms we saw and the sheer number of records we set this year, another metric we can show this hyperactivity with is a parameter called "ACE," or "accumulated cyclone energy." This is an integrated metric accounting for storm frequency, intensity, and duration. Basically, it's a putting a number to the amount of energy released by tropical cyclones during a season. It helps us identify how active a given hurricane season is or is not.
If you have a season with a lot of named storms but the ACE is lacking, then you know a lot of the storms were weaker. We had one storm less than last season, but 16 (10⁴kt²) more ACE this year.
An ACE of 126.1 (10⁴kt²) or greater constitutes an above-normal season, and an ACE above 159.6 (10⁴kt²) is an extremely active season. We surpassed the above-normal mark on October 8 with Milton.
The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season ACE totaled 161.6 (10⁴kt²). The majority of this came from three storms: Beryl, Milton, and Kirk. Even though Milton was stronger than Beryl, Beryl lasted 4 days longer than Milton. Had Milton lasted longer, it would have contributed to a bigger chunk of this season's ACE total.
One last thing: This year, the NHC implemented a new (experimental) version of the forecast cone graphic. The cone itself looks slightly different, as it no longer differentiates between Days 1-3 and Days 4-5. The main update, though, is the inclusion of inland Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches and Warnings for the United States. This will help further communicate the spatial extent of tropical cyclone-related risks and hazards.
Cheers to making it through another hurricane season along the South Texas Gulf Coast. Hope you enjoy the cooler months ahead!
