CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — The National Hurricane Center is marking two areas of possible development; one in the Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf (Invest 94L) has a low chance of developing as it moves into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. NHC increased the chance to 30% at 7 AM. The other tropical wave is in the main development region of the Atlantic Basin (Invest 95L) and it has a high chance of developing over the next seven days.
Both disturbances are currently interacting with Saharan dust which works on limiting the tropical development. We will Saharan dust really showing up in the Coastal Bend Sunday - Tuesday.
The first wave (Invest 94L) will also interact with land leading to more shear, and a lower chance of development as it gusts the Central American Coast. It will have a chance to develop once it makes it into the Bay of Campeche this weekend.
The second wave (Invest 95L) will have more time to try to develop in the abnormally warm Atlantic water. This gives it a better chance to strengthen as it approaches the Caribbean Sea.
Both systems will be steered by areas of high pressure to their north as the continue to moce west, northwest. The area of high pressure over Texas will work to keep anything that tries to develop in the Gulf of Mexico well to our south. We may see a slight increase in tropical mositure on Saturday and Sunday and a low chance of rain. The high only strenghtens and works to keep rain out of the area on Monday.
The second disturbance (Invest 95L) may sniff out a weakness between two regions of high pressure to the north of it and bend to the north mid/late next week. Those same areas of high pressure could also end up being stronger, suppressing any northward movement and sending this feature straight in to Central America. It's also possible there is an 'in between solution here. Lots to unpack, and we are still waiting for the delivery, so to speak.
Model ensamble runs from Thursday morning haven't changed much. There's a lot of confidence in development to at least tropical storm strenght early next week as the system approaches and enters the Caribbean Sea. Below shows several possible forecast outcomes for the path of a center of the storm and how strong the max wind will be.
Both the Euro and the GFS are similar through Tuesday evening. It's past Tuesday when the model guidance splits based on the strength of the storm and the high pressure to the north. The Euro above does have several stronger outcomes than the GFS does below, but both agree it will strengthen as it moves into the Caribbean.
There is plenty of time to monitor the evolution of Invest 95L. It is hurricane season and as we talked about prior to the season...it's looking active. Being prepared is important ahead of any inclement weather. Stay tuned.
Make sure to check out the 2024 KIII Hurricane Special - you can watch it (or re-watch) it here! The special includes topics like evacuations, hurricane kits, and rip currents - on top of information like the tropical outlook and new data on hurricane-related fatalities. You don't want to miss it!
For more on our local weather, head on over to our forecast post.
-------------------------------------------------------------
The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1 to November 30, with the peak of the climatological peak of the season happening on September 10.
Here are the names for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Names are given to tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes).
On May 23, NOAA released their forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. They're predicting an above-average year, with 17-25 named storms. This is the highest pre-season forecast they've ever issued.
The high number of storms forecast is due to near-record sea surface temperatures and the return of La Nina, both of which favor tropical cyclone development. We talk more about those in our Hurricane Special, which you can watch here!
Remember to not "anchor" to the first forecast you see - forecasts change. Also, rely on a credible source for your tropical information and forecasts.
