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TROPICAL UPDATE: Medium chance of development in the Gulf

The Gulf disturbance has a 60% chance of development and could bring heavy rain to the Coastal Bend next week.

CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor two areas of interest in the Atlantic. 

Credit: Faith Colbert
Tropical Overview

The tropical disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula, currently has the highest chance of development out of both areas in the Atlantic. It has a 60% medium chance over the next week and the tropical wave following in the Central Atlantic, has a 30% low chance of development over the next 7 days.

Credit: Faith Colbert
Tropical Satellite

Although we have a cold front preparing to grace the Coastal Bend Saturday evening into pre dawn Sunday, the dry air will be short lived as a stationary front sits in the Gulf collecting tropical moisture before dumping it back into the region. If the tropical low moves closer to the coast, we'll be in line for more rain, but if it moves farther east/offshore, rain totals won't be as impressive. As more model aggreance comes together, that could make all the difference on Weather Impact Alert days getting issued.  

Credit: Faith Colbert
Available Moisture

For our full local weather expected with this system, head on over to our forecast post.

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The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1 to November 30, with the peak of the climatological peak of the season happening on September 10.

Credit: Kristin Walla
Tropical Climatology

Here are the names for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Names are given to tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes).

Credit: Kristin Walla
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Names

On May 23, NOAA released their forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. They're predicting an above-average year, with 17-25 named storms. This is the highest pre-season forecast they've ever issued.

The high number of storms forecast is due to near-record sea surface temperatures and the return of La Nina, both of which favor tropical cyclone development. We talk more about those in our Hurricane Special, which you can watch here!

Credit: Kristin Walla
2024 NOAA Hurricane Forecast

Remember to not "anchor" to the first forecast you see - forecasts change. Also, rely on a credible source for your tropical information and forecasts.

Credit: KIII
Forecast Model Accuracy Over Time

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