CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — Here we are, Sept. 8, talking about a cold front in South Texas. On any given year, this would translate to excitement at even the thought of a cold front this time of year. But because the longer range forecast models were such a giant tease last week, consistently advertising a stronger cold front for South Texas, there's some disappointment with this outlook. Trust me, I'm right there with you. That's me seeing the wide forecast variance between models as recently as Monday for South Texas. (models have been terrible with this cold front here)
The forecast, all along, has been dependent on whether or not a cut-off low would develop and detach from the jet stream out west - which it has - and whether or not that feature would track far enough to the south on its eastward progression, sending a stronger cold front to South Texas. That's the part of the forecast that won't happen. The cut-off low will track northeast from Colorado to Minnesota through Saturday. Woe is me.
For South Texas and the Coastal Bend, it'll mean a stalling and weakening cold front as it moves south of I-10, Thursday. We'll likely see better rain chances with the front in the vicinity, Thursday. That and a brief northerly wind shift will keep temperatures in the middle to upper 80s Thursday and maybe Friday. WE may even get a little relief from humidity, too. So, it's not all that bad of a forecast for South Texas. The let down was in the massive tease from the longer range guidance last week. Any other year, and this type of forecast would be the catalyst for rampant excitement.
If you follow me regularly, you know I'm NOT a fan of long range forecasting when it comes to the reliability of it. This cold front forecast is a perfect example of why and how longer range forecast models can grasp the idea of something happening, but can often miss when it comes to local effects of a big event in locations removed from it. The models nailed the winter weather this system will bring to the Rockies about a week out, but missed how the effects would translate down the road in our neck of the woods.
- Holt, out.