The National Hurricane Center is watching a cluster of disorganized rain and storms over the Bay of Campeche. The official name of this area of disturbed weather is INVEST 97-L. Due to a lack of wind shear and very warm gulf waters, this has a 60% chance at development over the next few days. If this becomes more organized, this will be named Olga. From the looks of things, this storm will stay away from Texas and begin to lose strength this weekend.
Model guidance is indicating a very low chance at this impacting south Texas due to one feature traveling across state this evening. A strong cold front that is creating copious amounts of snowfall across the panhandle. This strong cold front will push through south Texas early Friday morning which will help to produce some heavy pockets of rain. In relation to the tropical disturbance, this cold front from the north will help push and steer this disturbance away from south Texas. In particular, this storm will push to the east of south Texas and closer to the northern gulf states (Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, etc) through the weekend. The strong winds aloft will help keep this system weak and under control.
While tropical activity continues to stay low, the official end of hurricane season is November 30th. During the year, this is a focus of tropical activity. They can happen any time throughout the year across the tropics. Although a tropical system may not be probable in our area, formation is always possible.
