CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — Data coming in today looks more and more like an active/rainy set-up leading to a culmination, Saturday. Bummer that it's happening this weekend with the Air Show and such, but this is a badly needed shot at beneficial rain and we may still catch some airplane action, Sunday. This is how I see it unfolding...
Thursday, a cold front will be north of the area and slowly sag south...rain chances don't look great. Isolated showers with the front to our north.
Friday, the cold front...if you want to call it that...moves in and stalls over the Coastal Bend. That positioning will lead to better chances for scattered showers or thunderstorms. Temps still in the low 80s.
Into Saturday, energy from a low pressure feature to our west will start to ride over the stalled frontal boundary, leading to the best shot for rain in the area. Saturday does not look good for outdoor stuff (like the Airshow) at this point. Saturday, to me, looks like the most active day with respect to showers and storms.
Sunday, hopefully by noon, the low pressure feature responsible for Saturday's mess will kick east of South Texas, bringing in drier air and clearing skies into the afternoon....in time for the air show, Sunday. A slower progression to the east here would delay the pace skies would clear and rain ends.
Rain totals will be between 1 and 3" on average in the Coastal Bend. Some more than other, others less than some. The northern parts of the Lake Corpus Christi/Choke Canyon Watershed may be in line for 3-5". This would be a badly needed rain event if it comes together.
More and more details/clarity will emerge as we approach the weekend. That's the latest as of Wednesday afternoon.
Holt out
